institutional-trader/PHASE1_EXPLANATION.md

8.4 KiB

Phase 1 Data & Filters - Complete Explanation

🎯 What is Phase 1?

Phase 1 adds 4 critical features to help you identify the best trading signals and filter out noise (hedges, rolls, low-quality signals).


📊 Phase 1 Data Fields

1. Signal Tier Classification (signal_tier)

What it does: Classifies every signal into one of three tiers based on quality.

Values:

  • TIER_1 🥇 = Tradeable alone (highest quality)
  • TIER_2 🥈 = Needs confirmation (wait 10-30 minutes, might become Tier-1)
  • IGNORE 🚫 = Don't trade (noise, hedges, or low quality)

How it works:

TIER_1 = 🟢/🔴 + 💎 + ⭐ + premium > $500K + direction aligned
TIER_2 = 🟢 + 💎 (no ⭐) OR ⭐ without 💎
IGNORE = OTM-only, mixed signals, low volume/OI ratio

Why it matters:

  • Tier-1 signals are institutions positioning (not hedging)
  • Tier-2 signals often become Tier-1 later
  • Ignore signals are likely hedges/rolls - don't waste time on them

2. Price Reaction Tracking (price_reaction_5m_pct, flow_led_to_move)

What it does: Tracks how price moves AFTER the signal appears.

Fields:

  • price_reaction_5m_pct = Price change 5 minutes after signal (%)
  • price_reaction_15m_pct = Price change 15 minutes after signal (%)
  • flow_led_to_move = Boolean: Did flow lead to >0.5% price move?

How it works:

Signal appears at 10:00 AM → Price = $100
5 minutes later (10:05 AM) → Price = $101.25
price_reaction_5m_pct = +1.25%

If |price_reaction_5m_pct| > 0.5% → flow_led_to_move = true

Why it matters:

  • Flow WITH price reaction = Real positioning (trade it!)
  • Flow WITHOUT price reaction = Hedge or roll (ignore it!)

Example:

  • Signal shows 🟢💎 with $1M premium
  • But price doesn't move → It's a hedge, not real positioning
  • Filter it out!

3. VWAP Integration (vwap_at_signal, price_vs_vwap_pct)

What it does: Calculates VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) and shows distance from it.

Fields:

  • vwap_at_signal = VWAP value at signal time
  • price_vs_vwap_pct = Percentage distance from VWAP

How it works:

VWAP = Average price weighted by volume (from 9:30 AM to signal time)
price_vs_vwap_pct = ((Current Price - VWAP) / VWAP) * 100

Example:
- VWAP = $100
- Current Price = $101
- price_vs_vwap_pct = +1.0%

Why it matters:

  • Price near VWAP = Good entry opportunity
  • Price far from VWAP (>2%) = Wait for pullback
  • VWAP pullback/reclaim = Best entry strategy

Trading Logic:

  • Best entry: VWAP pullback or VWAP reclaim
  • Good entry: Break & hold above prior high
  • Avoid: Chasing vertical candles (price too extended)

4. Trade Checklist (checklist_score, checklist_passed)

What it does: Evaluates signals against a 5-point checklist. Requires 4/5 to pass.

Checklist Items:

  1. Has direction (🟢 or 🔴)
  2. Has diamond (💎)
  3. Has star ()
  4. Price respects VWAP (within ±2%)
  5. Index confirms (SPY/QQQ alignment - placeholder for Phase 2)

Fields:

  • checklist_score = Score out of 5 (0-5)
  • checklist_passed = Boolean: True if score >= 4
  • checklist_details = Object showing which checks passed/failed

How it works:

Example:
✅ Has direction (🟢) = 1 point
✅ Has diamond (💎) = 1 point
✅ Has star (⭐) = 1 point
✅ Price respects VWAP = 1 point
❌ Index confirms = 0 points (not implemented yet)

Total: 4/5 → checklist_passed = true

Why it matters:

  • Prevents bad trades - Only trade signals that pass 4/5 checks
  • Quality filter - Ensures multiple conditions are met
  • Reduces false signals - Filters out incomplete setups

🔍 Phase 1 Filters

Filter 1: 🥇 Tier-1 Only

What it does: Shows only Tier-1 signals (highest quality, tradeable alone).

When to use:

  • When you want only the best signals
  • When you're short on time - focus on Tier-1 only
  • When you want institutional positioning (not hedges)

What it filters:

  • Shows: Tier-1 signals only
  • Hides: Tier-2 and Ignore signals

Example:

Without filter: 50 signals (10 Tier-1, 20 Tier-2, 20 Ignore)
With filter: 10 signals (only Tier-1)

Filter 2: Checklist Passed

What it does: Shows only signals that passed the 4/5 checklist.

When to use:

  • When you want validated trades only
  • When you want to avoid incomplete setups
  • When you want multiple confirmations

What it filters:

  • Shows: Signals with checklist_score >= 4
  • Hides: Signals with checklist_score < 4

Example:

Without filter: 50 signals (30 passed, 20 failed)
With filter: 30 signals (only passed)

Filter 3: 📈 Flow Led to Move

What it does: Shows only signals where flow led to actual price movement (>0.5%).

When to use:

  • When you want real positioning (not hedges)
  • When you want to filter out noise
  • When you want signals that actually moved price

What it filters:

  • Shows: Signals where price moved >0.5% after signal
  • Hides: Signals where price didn't move (likely hedges/rolls)

Example:

Without filter: 50 signals (20 moved price, 30 didn't)
With filter: 20 signals (only ones that moved price)

🎯 Combined Filter Strategy

Best Signals (All 3 Filters ON):

🥇 Tier-1 Only + ✅ Checklist Passed + 📈 Flow Led to Move

Result: Only the highest quality signals that:
- Are Tier-1 (tradeable alone)
- Passed 4/5 checklist
- Led to actual price movement

Example: 50 signals → 5 signals (only the best!)

Conservative Strategy:

🥇 Tier-1 Only + ✅ Checklist Passed

Result: High-quality validated signals
(Even if price hasn't moved yet - might be early)

Aggressive Strategy:

📈 Flow Led to Move

Result: Any signal that moved price
(Includes Tier-2 if they moved price)

📈 Real-World Example

Scenario: You see a signal

Signal Details:

  • Symbol: AAPL
  • Badges: 🟢💎
  • Premium: $750K
  • Time: 10:00 AM
  • Price: $150

Phase 1 Data:

  • signal_tier = TIER_1
  • checklist_score = 4
  • checklist_passed = true
  • price_reaction_5m_pct = +1.2%
  • flow_led_to_move = true
  • vwap_at_signal = $149.50
  • price_vs_vwap_pct = +0.33%

Analysis:

  • Tier-1 signal (highest quality)
  • Passed checklist (4/5)
  • Flow led to price move (+1.2% in 5 minutes)
  • Price near VWAP (good entry)

Decision: TRADE IT! This is a high-quality signal with multiple confirmations.


Scenario: Another signal

Signal Details:

  • Symbol: MSFT
  • Badges: 🟢💎 (no )
  • Premium: $200K
  • Time: 11:00 AM
  • Price: $300

Phase 1 Data:

  • signal_tier = TIER_2 ⚠️
  • checklist_score = 3
  • checklist_passed = false
  • price_reaction_5m_pct = +0.1%
  • flow_led_to_move = false
  • vwap_at_signal = $299.50
  • price_vs_vwap_pct = +0.17%

Analysis:

  • ⚠️ Tier-2 signal (needs confirmation)
  • Failed checklist (3/5)
  • Flow didn't lead to price move (only +0.1%)
  • Price near VWAP

Decision: WAIT or IGNORE - Not enough confirmations, price didn't react.


🎯 Summary

Phase 1 Data Helps You:

  1. Identify quality - Tier-1 vs Tier-2 vs Ignore
  2. Filter hedges - Flow without price reaction = hedge
  3. Find entries - VWAP distance shows entry opportunities
  4. Validate trades - Checklist ensures multiple conditions met

Phase 1 Filters Help You:

  1. Focus on best signals - Tier-1 only
  2. Avoid bad trades - Checklist passed only
  3. Filter noise - Flow led to move only

The Goal:

Trade only the highest quality signals that:

  • Are Tier-1 (institutional positioning)
  • Passed checklist (multiple confirmations)
  • Led to price movement (real positioning, not hedge)

Result: Higher win rate, fewer false signals, better entries!


💡 Pro Tips

  1. Start with all 3 filters ON - See only the best signals
  2. If no results, turn off one filter - Gradually relax criteria
  3. Check VWAP distance - Best entries are near VWAP
  4. Monitor price reaction - If flow doesn't move price, it's likely a hedge
  5. Use Tier-2 as watchlist - They often become Tier-1 later

Remember: Phase 1 is about quality over quantity. Better to trade 5 great signals than 50 mediocre ones!